Canadian Election: What’s Next for Gaming if the Liberals Win?

April 26, 2025

We're nearing the finish line before the Canadian national election on Monday, with the majority of polls indicating a Liberal Party victory. 

Liberal Dominant Administration? 

The Liberal lead has narrowed over the Conservative Party (42.3% to 38.6%), yet they remain favored to secure the most seats, maintaining a stronger advantage in the larger provinces – Ontario, Quebec, and B.C. – along with Atlantic Canada. 

A representative from FanDuel contacted Casino.org this week, presenting an intriguing perspective: Following the leadership debate on April 17, the Conservative Party's odds changed from +220 to +250, reaching +290 this morning. The Liberals stand at -670. 

Additional Wagers Taking Conservative Approach 

Even though the odds are increasing, the Conservatives are attracting more wagers, as stated by the FanDuel representative. 

The favorite markets among Ontario bettors at FanDuel include “Which party will secure victory in the 2025 Federal election,” followed by “Which political party will capture the most seats in Ontario,” and “How many seats will the Liberal Party obtain in the Canadian election.” 

At BetMGM, the Liberals are listed at -500 to secure the highest number of seats, while the Conservatives are at +330. 

The prediction markets present an entirely separate narrative. Consider the level of interest that would arise if individuals were permitted to trade on Polymarket in Canada, which is currently not possible. The Liberals, led by Mark Carney, surpassed the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre in the polls over a month ago, and that advantage has remained consistent since then. 

This morning on Polymarket, the probability that the next Prime Minister of Canada will be Carney is 78%, with a volume exceeding $19.3 million, while Poilievre stands at 22% (notably, with a volume surpassing $32.5 million). 

What Will Occur with Gaming if the Liberals Prevail? 

What occurs with Canada's igaming sector if the polls prevail and the Liberals succeed on Monday? 

A prominent industry source informed Casino.org regarding the possibility of a digital sales tax on online gaming with a Liberal administration.

"That would be worry No. 1, because that would just drive up cost and chase legitimate operators out of the market,” the source said. “I could also put a sizeable bet on the Canadian Lottery Coalition trying to shoehorn online gaming into the Online Harms Bill… making it more difficult for other provinces to regulate.”

Paul Burns, President and CEO of the Canadian Gaming Association, mentioned that after the federal government transferred gaming jurisdiction to the provinces in the 1980s, the CGA is focusing more on matters such as the modernization of Canada’s anti-money laundering laws. 

Digital Gaming Sales Tax

“That’s woefully out of date, and doesn’t reflect today’s industry, use of technology,” Burns said.

"That’s where we are actively working with them. That’s our No. 1 priority. We want to see the modernization of that regime. That’s long overdue. It doesn’t matter who is in government. They’re going to have to move forward with legislation. It goes to the heart of Canada’s reputation in the world of having strong action on financial crime. All the sectors impacted are going to be looking for change, modernization and updated legislation.”

On the table if the Liberals prevail, given that no government activities have been conducted since prior to Christmas, is Bill S-269, introduced by Canadian Senator Marty Deacon, which urges the Minister of Heritage to create new national standards regarding gaming advertising, focusing on the content of gambling ads, their airing times, and the overall amount of advertising present. 

National Advertising Bill

“We have been quite clear that the federal government has neither the expertise nor the capacity to do such and it should be left to the provinces,” Burns said.

"Obviously people want see a positive business climate in Canada,” he added. “The uncertainty and turmoil that’s been caused with tariffs has been unsettling. It’s been striking consumer confidence. People have been having second thoughts on how they spend their money these days. Whether it’s fear of job loss, or hits to financial portfolios, there’s been lots of turmoil. We want to see that end. [Igaming] operators know their customers are sensitive to this, they’ve seen it and they’re starting to feel it. No one likes uncertainty in the economy. We need a federal government that gets back to work.”

Burns’ reaction to the digital gaming tax that was floated out by the industry source: “That would be incredibly tone deaf. If the politicians that are running for office are true to their commitment about wanting to create a positive business climate in Canada, to do business, that wouldn’t be one way to do it. I would be extremely surprised if that was the case.”