Super Bowl to Generate $1.7 Billion in Legal Bets, Says Macquarie

February 04, 2025

This year's Super Bowl is expected to generate $1.7 billion in legally placed wagers, with DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) identified as the gaming stock that holds the greatest potential for downside or upside leverage related to the event. 

This is based on a recent report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. In the memo, Beynon indicated that with 160 million American adults having access to regulated sports betting, Super Bowl LIX is expected to produce $1.7 billion in legal wagers, an increase of 11% compared to last year's game. Macquarie estimates that around 11% of adults in the US will wager at least $100 on the NFL championship game.

"We think books will look to reduce their liability with most betting occurring closer to Sunday’s kickoff. If current trends stand, we estimate DKNG will have the highest exposure at +/-3.5% to current 1Q US cons revs based on various scenarios we analyze,” observes Beynon.

DraftKings and FanDuel, owned by Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT), are the two biggest online sportsbook operators in the United States. The pair and their competitors might benefit from some respite during the Super Bowl after enduring what was widely characterized as a “customer-friendly” final quarter. 

Chiefs, With Assistance from Will Benefit Sportsbooks 

As per Macquarie's estimates from Tuesday night, the largest Super Bowl liabilities for sportsbooks were on the total exceeding 48.5 and the Philadelphia Eagles on the moneyline. In other words, gaming companies probably prefer the Kansas City Chiefs to win in a game with few points scored. 

The same could apply to investors in DraftKings and Flutter, although it's undeniable that those stocks have risen over 12% and 3.42%, respectively, in the last month. If the books achieve their intended outcome, it may lead to a hold rate of 22% or around $365 million in gross gaming revenue (GGR), and $255 million in net gaming revenue (NGR), as stated by Beynon. 

The analyst stated that if the Eagles win and the over is achieved, it could result in a hold rate of -4%. DraftKings’ revenue for the first quarter might increase or decrease by approximately 3.5% due to Super Bowl visibility. 

Beynon notes that Flutter's upside/downside risk is roughly half that of Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI), which stands at 1%. 

Additional Super Bowl Elements to Monitor 

The Super Bowl is the top individual sporting event bet on in the US, making it significant for sportsbooks' first-quarter outcomes. Regardless of whether these outcomes are positive or negative, the event serves as a prime opportunity for customer acquisition.

"While material to 1Q earnings, the more important opportunity rests in customer acquisition through campaigns like FanDuel’s “Kick of Destiny 3,” said Beynon. “For data provider Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI), we see less risk given its payment model and upside from in-play betting momentum spurred by big events like the Super Bowl, with in-play expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 31% through 2030.”

Predictions suggest that the total bets for Super Bowl LIX will reach unprecedented levels, although the typical wager amount is expected to decrease this year.